Krisen i Grekland - den ENDA tråden

[Fajotta]

Och ta med euro!

[inkfish]

Ursprungligen postat av Fajotta

Och ta med euro!

Om man behöver det i slutet av augusti vet vi ju inte än ... Just nu vet vi ingenting.

[Pilatus]

Spännande dagar framför oss nu.

Långsiktigt kanske det är bättre med Grekland utanför Euro, men tror att det kan bli stökigt i några år innan dess.

Läste denna artikel precis. Euro area: Q&A on Greek exit.

https://nexus.nordea.com/#/article/20589

utdrag om vad de tror kan hände Grekisk ekonomi vid Grexit:

What may happen with the Greek economy?

We would expect a deep recession in the short term, followed by an export-led recovery. For the longer-term outlook, we are not optimistic.

The new drachma will likely depreciate sharply, maybe by more than 30%. A lot of private debtors (with EUR debt) will default, too. The country will most likely experience a sharp recession with a decline in GDP by some 5-10% (Greek GDP declined by 25% between 2008 and 2013). An economy in recession means tax receipts in steep decline. With no access to capital markets, the Greek government will be forced to implement tax increases or spending cuts. At the same time, inflation (-1.4% y/y most recently) will most likely rise to double-digit rates as imports get much more expensive. If there was a humanitarian crisis before, it will surely get worse.

After a year or so, an export-led recovery would bring back some growth. The longer-term outlook depends on whether Greece is willing and able to carry out the reforms that make it an attractive place to invest and create jobs, eg by bringing the legal system to modern standards and reducing the dependence on domestic public spending. A wipe-out of debt and a weak currency are not a sustainable growth model.